20141106 by Dan McCrum
Indeed, the question may be less about the
direction for the dollar than the distance it might travel: can the very big
rallies of the 1980s and 1990s be repeated? That might be too much to expect,
without an emerging markets crisis to send investors in search of hard
currency. Investment flows have improved, but context is important: in terms of
investment flows, the booming West Coast has nothing on the mania of the dotcom
era.
Come back to the politics as well. Along
with tight monetary policy, the dollar surge of the early 1980s was helped by
Ronald Reagan’s tax cuts. The next Republican Congress may do many things, but
a fiscal loosening (dare we say stimulus) is unlikely to be among them.
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