2014.01.07 By Gideon Rachman
Sino-Japanese relations are poisoned by
bitter memories of the previous wars, just as relations between France and
Germany, a century ago, were embittered by memories of the Franco-Prussian war
of 1870-71. In 1914, the established hegemon, the UK, was pulled into the war
because of its rivalry with a rising Germany and its alliances with France and
Russia. Today, the obvious danger is that the US, worried by the rise of China,
will be pulled into an Asian conflict by its alliance with Japan.
In 1914, national leaders were so keen to
appear strong and to protect their honour (or “credibility” as they would call
it nowadays), that they were unable to step back from the brink of conflict.
Reflection on the Sarajevo crisis might just prevent today’s leaders from falling into the same trap, if Sino-Japanese tensions
heighten again. But, unfortunately, many of today’s political players still
approach their rivalries with a Munich mindset. Neither Japan nor China is
prepared to look “weak” by backing off in the East China Sea. The US is also
worried that its “credibility” will be damaged, if it fails to show toughness.
A prominent official in the Obama administration explained to me last year that
– while he understood Chinese objections to US naval patrols near China’s coast
– America could not cut back these patrols because that would be seen as
weakness.
This is the kind of playground logic that
four-year-old children are encouraged to grow out of. But, unfortunately, it
still seems to be the dominant mode of thinking in international affairs.
The Munich mindset is so entrenched that a
real intellectual shift would be required to change it. The many commemorations
of the first world war that will take place this year might just serve that
purpose, by influencing world leaders to take a less dangerously macho approach
to their rivalries. With tensions rising in East Asia and conflict spreading in
the Middle East, the 100th anniversary of the Great War comes at an important
time. Let’s hope it does some good.
<단어>
goldbug : 금본위제 지지자
rampage : (파괴 등을 저지르며 벌이는) 광란
embitter : (오랜 시간 동안) 원통하게 만들다
keen : ~을 열망하는
entrench : (변경이 어렵도록)단단히 자리 잡게 하다
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