http://www.economist.com/news/asia/21654616-theres-nothing-optimismexcept-where-its-unrealistic-hoping-growth
20150620
- With Japan running a far looser fiscal policy than any other rich country - the budget deficit is 6.9% of GDP - the prime minister needed at the same time to promise a credible longer-term plan for lowering the country’s mountain of public debt, which stands at 246% of GDP and rising. The plan is due to be published this summer. Worries are growing that it will shirk the task.
- The government has laid out two scenarios for the national debt
- The gloomier one envisages that Mr Abe’s efforts to revive the economy will fall short. If so, the country would miss by a mile the 2020 target of brining the primary budget into suplus
- Unsuprisingly, the government says, it believes in the alternative scenario of “revitalisation” : however, their goal of growth rate is zippier than the US
- The government thinks that recent economic news justifies its optimism. GDP expected at an annualised rate of 3.9% in the first three months of the year. But such growth will be hard if not possible to sustain. Not least, the government’s prediction for productivity growth seems unrealistic. ( the level of the government’s prediction is sams as that of the go-go 1980s)
- The revitalisation scenario implies a series of deep reforms in the labour market, health care and other areas. Yet there are few signs of such radical change except in the fields of corporate governance and farming
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